The year is coming to an end and it’s time for a little reflection. We’ve already looked back and highlighted some of the best games of 2013, organized into lists by genre. There are more of these lists on the way, but for this article we’re going to look forward. What will 2014 bring for mobile gaming? We’ve got six predictions after the jump.
1. Porting Season
I don’t think anybody would be surprised at the idea of more ports to mobile. That’s been happening since way before smartphones (ever play Tetris on an old cell phone?). That said, we’re way beyond Tetris. 2013 saw the release of several full ports of excellent console games including Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic, XCOM: Enemy Unknown, and Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas. Our mobile devices are constantly getting more powerful. The latest devices are so powerful, in fact, that many of these games run better on mobile devices than they ever did when they were released in the first place (San Andreas on an iPad Air is so much faster than it was on PS2, especially when loading new areas). On top of that, these games have proven they can still do well critically and commercially.
2014 is going to usher in the golden age of porting for mobile devices. Now that our devices are powerful enough, we’re going to see a ton more console ports. We’re also going to see more games that start on mobile and then get ported out to PC, Mac, and consoles after their wild success on touchscreen devices (Angry Birds and Cut the Rope, anyone?). Finally, we’re going to see way more multiplatform games that include iOS and Android versions from the get-go, especially with the rising popularity of Unity, which is a game development engine that makes it extremely simple to publish one game to all kinds of platforms.
2. Mobile Means Business
Game studios are constantly paying more attention to mobile and that momentum is not going to slow down anytime soon. Just this year, EA reported that for the first time ever, it made more money through the iOS App Store than they did through any other distribution platform, including its own Origin service. We’ve already seen big gaming companies like Ubisoft, Capcom, Square Enix, and EA embrace mobile wholeheartedly and with great success. Both Microsoft and Sony have big plans for Xbox One and PS4 owners to use their mobile devices to create all kinds of clever “second screen experiences” designed to enrich console gameplay. Both companies have also experimented with putting their own games on the mobile app stores. Recent interviews with Nintendo reveal that it is currently experimenting internally with mobile app development.
It’s a simple fact that the iOS App Store and Google Play Store serve a way bigger audience than any of the dedicated gaming systems. 2014 is going to see lots of great apps from developers big and small that traditionally make games for consoles. Some of these were the early adopters we’ve seen making apps for years, but many of them will be entering the mobile space for the first time. Each company will have its own spread of ports, original content, and/or promotional tie-ins, but you can bet that they’ll all be taking mobile more seriously than ever before.
Speaking of tie-ins, tons of non-gaming companies will be taking mobile seriously too. Clothing brands, movies, TV shows, books, restaurants, politicians, food brands, and more will all have app tie-ins. What better way to get people excited and talking about your product than to make a fun little free-to-play game they can play while waiting in line somewhere?
3. Controllers Will Struggle, Then Take Off
There have been third-party controllers for both iOS and Android for a while now, and most of them work by acting like Bluetooth keyboards. Controllers for smartphones and tablets have always been a bit of a niche product though, mostly because developers need to program support for each controller into each of their games. This creates a vicious cycle where there aren’t many games that support controllers, which makes controllers less desirable to consumers, which means not many consumers buy controllers, which means there is little incentive for developers to support controllers. Apple is set to turn this paradigm on its head though, as iOS 7 officially supports controllers and, more importantly, Apple has created standards for all third-party controllers to follow.
Currently, there are only a couple iOS 7 controllers on the market — the MOGA Ace Power and the Logitech PowerShell. Both cost $99 and both received reviews that were pretty lukewarm. These controllers are good, but not great, and generally feel cheaper and flimsier than their $99 price tag would suggest. Don’t underestimate the power of Apple’s controller standards, though. More controller models are on the way, but app developers only need to write the code to support Apple’s standards, not every single new controller that hits the market.
There are two hurdles that have made the new controllers a little slow out the gate: the controllers are too expensive and there’s no killer app that makes people want to go out and buy a controller in the first place. Sometime in 2014 though, somebody’s going to make a decent controller and charge a much lower price for it. Somebody else is going to put out a killer app that begs to be played on a controller (something like GTA: San Andreas, perhaps). The combination of these two catalysts will move lots of controllers, jumpstarting the whole system by encouraging more companies to produce affordable controllers and more companies to put out great games with controller support. It’s a safe bet that Google will establish their own controller standards for Android right around the same time that iOS controllers take off.
4. Mobile Takes Over the Living Room
If you combine my first three predictions (more console ports, more existing game studios getting into mobile, and the success of controllers) with the fact that the new game consoles are pretty expensive, you’ve got a scenario where mobile is ripe to replace gaming consoles in many homes. It’s obviously not going to be right for everybody, but for families that use game systems for Netflix more often than gaming (which is most of them, by the way), it may not actually be such a tough exchange. The biggest hurdle is getting the games from your mobile device to your TV, and in many ways that’s being addressed already.
This year saw the release of several microconsoles such as the OUYA, GameStick, and MOJO that all run for a fraction of the cost of a Wii U, PS4, or Xbox One and all run Android. Other solutions include connecting your smartphone or tablet to your TV via HDMI or by wirelessly casting your device’s screen to the TV. Wireless casting requires a special TV or device such as an Apple TV for iOS or a Miracast dongle for Android.
Wireless streaming is probably the most convenient, since you can use the smartphone or tablet you already own and you don’t need to worry about the length of your HDMI cable. That said, wireless streaming introduces enough lag that it’s impossibly to really enjoy playing most games. The lag isn’t really a problem when you’re browsing the web or watching a video, but it makes it miserable to play any action-based game. There’s a bright future for using your mobile device as a game console though. Expect Apple and Google both to improve the quality of Airplay and Miracast, to the point that the lag problem is practically solved.
Apple’s brand new iOS and official controller support sets up a great time for an Apple TV refresh with a much heavier focus on gaming. That could look like the Apple TV finally getting its own App Store or better AirPlay technology that supports mirroring your device’s screen on your TV with minimal lag. Either way, expect to be able to play games on your Apple TV using your choice of iOS device or official controller. It’s certain that Google is working on improving their video streaming lag too. Those improvements will certainly show up in the next major Android update, but we’ll also see software update or hardware refresh to Google’s own Chromecast dongle to bestow it with Miracast support.
5. The Free-to-Play Effect
There’s no doubt that free-to-play has taken over the gaming world by storm. This is easily apparent when you look at the 100 top grossing games on the iOS App Store or Google Play Store. At the time of writing, every game on those lists is free-to-play except 10 on the App Store and 3 on the Google Play Store. An obvious side effect of free-to-play’s success is that more and more games are going to be free-to-play (something we’ve already experienced throughout 2013). There’s more to it than that though, game studios have to think about the best way to make money through free-to-play. That comes down to acquiring tons of users, getting them interested enough to pay in the first place, and then getting them to stick around so they continue to pay.
We’re going to see a huge effort from companies big and small to establish game franchises. Mobile gaming is still young and there’s a lot of room for fresh game series to be established. The great strength in a popular series is apparent when you look at a series like Angry Birds. Rovio has players deeply invested in the original Angry Birds, but also in all the other Angry Birds sequels and spinoffs that have been released since. The series is so popular that any time a new Angry Birds game comes out, it instantly skyrockets up the charts. Any new game series that can gain some popularity is sure to make its company lots of money for years and years to come.
New games are also going to have an even heavier focus on the social side of gaming. Games that make you want to play with your friends bring in more players through word of mouth and the social aspect makes it much easier to enjoy a game for a long time. Just look at the success of Clash of Clans, you can join alliances with other players, chat with them, and form bonds that make it feel like a group of other people rely on you. Playing against other players keeps the combat interesting, but the real draw to the game is the social interaction. Feeling like you need to be there for other people makes it harder to leave the game. Chatting with friends and showing off your progress makes it exciting to play the game often. Games will find lots of ways to make games much more social. The games that will be successful will also be the games that use clever ways to let players interact with each other instead of just asking players to post a new status on Facebook or Twitter.
Finally, expect strategies from the playbook of free-to-play MMO games. Lots of special events and free rewards (especially daily login rewards) to keep players constantly coming back for more. New players don’t mean anything if you can’t keep them around.
6. Games Riding on Each Other’s Success, in a Good Way
The app marketplace has long been home to rampant cloning. A game becomes outrageously successful and then all of a sudden you have hundreds of companies clamoring for their piece of the pie. If you follow our weekly new release announcements, you’ve surely seen tons of clones of Clash of Clans or Candy Crush Saga. Way too many of these games are blatant copycats that don’t even try to do anything original. Fortunately, most of them crash and burn, they just don’t have that special something they are trying to emulate. Unfortunately, we’re certainly going to see tons more in 2014.
That said, there are positive ways to cash in on the success of others. We’ve seen several cases of cross-promotion this year, and I think we’re going to see even more in 2014. This year, Puzzles & Dragons hosted two events that saw special dungeons populated with creatures from Clash of Clans. Likewise, the surprise pairing of Pocket God and Amateur Surgeon 3 saw an island full of Adult Swim-themed decorations and surgery to remove Pygmies from the belly of a whale. More subtly, République lets you pickpocket game cartridges from the guards that patrol the hallways of Metamorphosis. Each of the game cartridges represent an iOS game from Infinity Blade to Sword & Sworcery and in-game character Cooper has something funny to say about each one.
The feelings between these two ends of the spectrum couldn’t be more different. Obvious, lazy clones are annoying and boring. Most of them are an instant pass because it’s something you’ve seen a hundred times before and, besides, the original is probably better anyway. On the flipside, seeing game developers cheer each other on and mash their imaginary worlds together is exciting, fun, and silly — especially when you are a fan of both games. When you don’t know the other game, a crossover can act as a trustworthy promotion from a game developer you enjoy. Love Puzzles & Dragons but (somehow) haven’t ever heard of Clash of Clans? Well, it may just be another game you’ll love.
What do you want to see in the mobile game scene next year? What predictions do you have, for better or for worse? What would you love to see but don’t think will come? Add your guesses to the comments section so you can officially say you called it this time next year!
